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Jun 11, 2012 at 12:33 vote accept Alex B
Jun 11, 2012 at 12:33 vote accept Alex B
Jun 11, 2012 at 12:33
Jun 11, 2012 at 12:30 comment added Alex B The Iowa Electronic Markets constantly forecast US political outcomes. This market is in 74% of the time better than the polls. 100 days in advance of the predicted event 100% more accurate than polls. (Berg et al. 2008) sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207008000320
Jun 11, 2012 at 12:28 comment added Dmitry Chornyi No, not off the top of my head. I will try to update the answer later. Please feel free to edit it if you wish.
Jun 11, 2012 at 12:21 comment added Artem Kaznatcheev Could you also include a reference to a good survey on this if you know one off the top of your head? It would make the answer more complete and self-contained. Do you know any applications to prediction markets as described by the OP?
Jun 11, 2012 at 12:19 history answered Dmitry Chornyi CC BY-SA 3.0