# Confidence rating in cognitive experiments

Does a confidence rating included in a post task measure the likelihood of correctness to the answer or likelihood of occurrence of an event.

To give an example: participants are given a picture of clouds and they are provided with the binary question if they think it might start raining; the answer is thus either a 'yes' or a 'no'. Then they have to give an estimate of how confident they are of their decisions on a rating scale that indicates how confident they were; for example they might say '70%'.

Does the confidence rating reflect their estimate of likelihood of rain, or rather the likelihood that the choice is correct?