I'm looking for the name of an effect that relates confidence in your decisions (dependent variable) against your level of knowledge for a specific domain (independent variable). I don't remember where I first heard of this. It could have been more than 20 years ago in college psych classes, or years later in management seminars. It could have been junk science I heard from a friend. It's been too long ago to remember.
The gist is this: A graph of decisiveness or confidence in your ability to make decsion (on the y axis) vs. education/experiences/fund of knowledge (on the x axis) is shaped like a U. When you have little knowledge, you underestimate the complexity of a situation, and you think making decisions is easy. The nadir of the U happens when you know enough to understand a domain's complexity, and you find it hard to make decisions because you're overwhelmed by all the possibilities. With experience, at the upper end of the x-axis, you have started to assimilate the information in a more intuitive way, you can better estimate the most likely outcomes, and you're better at accepting uncertainty. So you find it easier to make decisions.
I may be thinking of the "Four Stages of Competence." Perhaps the U-shaped graph and the emphasis on confidence in decision making was just a unique way one of my instructors presented the data. It may have got this idea from a medical internship manual (I no longer have) with a graph very much like the Hype Cycle, but related to experience gained over the course of an intern year.
Does this effect sound familiar to anyone? I'm looking for a name for the effect. Part of me thinks that over time, I may have conflated the Hype Cycle with the Four Stages of competence.